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Tropical Storm Rafael has begun to strengthen in the Caribbean Sea, and it is expected to reach hurricane strength by Wednesday and bring destructive winds and heavy rainfall to the region.
Rafael was approximately 105 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 265 miles southeast of Grand Cayman, according to the Tuesday morning update from the National Hurricane Center. The storm is expected to unleash damaging winds, dangerous storm surge, and torrential rainfall, first in Jamaica and the Grand Cayman Islands beginning Tuesday and then western Cuba on Wednesday. Parts of the Florida Keys could even see impacts beginning Wednesday evening.
The Isle of Youth and several Cuban provinces as well as the Grand Cayman Islands have been placed under hurricane warnings, according to the National Hurricane Center’s update on Monday night. Hurricane-force winds may impact parts of the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and western Cuba by Wednesday.
Tropicalstorm watch alerts were issued for the Florida Keys on Monday, joining the existing warnings for Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Gusty winds and rainfall of 1 to 3 inches are possible.
While it remains uncertain what impacts Rafael may have on the northern Gulf Coast, residents are urged to stay updated. Heavy rain through midweek is expected across the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba, raising the risk of flooding and landslides, with rainfall spreading into Florida and the Southeast later in the week. Shifts in the storm’s trajectory could significantly impact flood risks across Florida and the Southeast.
The Cubanprovinces of Cienfuegos, Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila are under tropical storm warnings after being upgraded from tropical storm watch. A tropical storm warning remains for Jamaica.
The NHC is projecting that Rafael could see “steady to rapid intensification” as it nears the Cayman Islands and Cuba. The current forecast calls for Rafael to be at least a high-end Category 1 hurricane at the time of landfall in Cuba Wednesday.
In the Caribbean, Rafael has begun unleashing heavy rainfall, particularly affecting Jamaica. Forecasts suggest that western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and could receive between 3 to 6 inches of rain, with parts of Jamaica and Cuba potentially seeing up to 9 inches. This deluge raises the risk of flash flooding and mudslides, especially in Jamaica’s mountainous regions.
Showers and thunderstorms were impacting many parishes across Jamaica, with strong, gusty winds sweeping through parts of the southern regions, according to the country’s meteorological service in its 8 p.m. ET briefing.
Schools in Jamaica will be closed for in-person classes on Tuesday as a precaution against the severe weather, CNN affiliate Radio Jamaica News reported.
The varying predictions from different forecast models contribute to the uncertainty surrounding the storm. One model expects Rafael to make landfall in western Cuba and then move northwest toward the US, while another indicates a potential leftward turn in the Gulf, which could weaken the storm or result in landfall in northeastern Mexico.
Although five hurricanes have made landfall on the US Gulf Coast this year, Rafael is expected to be less intense than hurricanes Helene and Milton, as its strength may be limited by Cuba’s geography and unfavorable winds.
Though tropical activity generally decreases in November, storms can still develop, and landfalls in the US during this month are uncommon. Hurricane expert Michael Lowry noted that 98% of named storms typically make landfall in the US before November.
Tropical Storm Rafael will also create rough seas and significant storm surges, with expected inundation of up to 3 feet in the Cayman Islands and as much as 9 feet in western Cuba above normal tide levels.
